Germany faces a politically charged Sunday as voters in Berlin and Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania head to the polls. Amidst the ballots, Chancellor Friedrich Merz is under growing pressure within his Christian Democratic Union (CDU) following a string of electoral setbacks and a sharp drop in his personal popularity.
While these elections do not decide the office of federal chancellor, the results are set to heavily influence the internal debate within the CDU, whose leadership will meet after the vote to discuss the party’s future direction.
CDU at Historic Lows in Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania
The most challenging scenario for Merz’s CDU is unfolding in Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania.
Final polls before the vote placed the far-right AfD at about 37 percent, with Premier Manuela Schwesig’s SPD close behind at roughly 35 percent.
The CDU, by contrast, was polling as low as six to seven percent in some surveys.
For a party traditionally among Germany’s leading political forces, such a result would mark one of its weakest ever performances in a state election.
Five Percent Threshold Now a Concern for CDU
Parties in Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania need to surpass the five percent mark to enter the state parliament.
According to pre-election polls, the CDU was only a few points above this threshold.
As a result, attention is not only on the AfD and SPD results, but also on whether the chancellor’s party can maintain enough support to stay in the state legislature.
After a recent heavy defeat in Saxony-Anhalt, Merz accepted political responsibility but rejected calls to resign.
Housing Costs Dominate Berlin Election
The other major vote takes place in Berlin.
The political context there is different, with the main campaign issues being a lack of affordable housing and sharply rising rents.
Recent opinion surveys showed both the CDU and The Left party polling around 20 percent, with AfD also attracting notable support.
Another key topic is the future of the former Tempelhof airport, now a large public park. Some parties want housing development on parts of the land, while others want to preserve it without major construction.
Merz Cancels New York Trip Amid Election Tensions
The tensions surrounding the elections have impacted the chancellor’s schedule.
Merz cancelled his planned trip to the United Nations General Assembly in New York, choosing instead to remain in Germany.
The CDU has also scheduled a special leadership meeting following Sunday’s elections.
In advance of the vote, eight CDU state premiers issued a joint statement backing Merz and rejecting internal party leadership disputes as a solution to their problems.
AfD Already Surged in Saxony-Anhalt
Pressure on Merz intensified after the September 6 election in Saxony-Anhalt.
There, the AfD secured about 44 percent of the vote, well ahead of the CDU.
The outcome reignited debate in Germany over the so-called “political firewall”—the refusal of mainstream parties to cooperate with the AfD.
Under Merz’s leadership, the CDU continues to uphold this stance.
Chancellor’s Popularity Plummets
The CDU’s woes are compounded by Chancellor Merz’s weak personal ratings.
The latest satisfaction polls put Merz at around 14 percent approval.
The German government is also grappling with weak economic growth, energy prices, high fuel costs, migration, and disputes over the shape of social and economic reforms.
In response, the cabinet has announced a temporary reduction in energy tax on petrol and diesel ahead of the elections.
Merz Refuses to Link His Mandate to State Elections
The chancellor has repeatedly stressed that he was elected for a full term and that state elections cannot automatically be interpreted as a vote on the federal government.
Moreover, a German chancellor cannot be unseated by state election results alone—any change would require a separate political and parliamentary process at the federal level.
Nonetheless, the results are likely to fuel further internal debate about the CDU’s direction and Merz’s leadership.
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Sunday’s elections will primarily determine the political makeup of Berlin and Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania. At the same time, the results will provide another snapshot of support for the CDU, AfD, SPD and The Left after a period of significant shifts on Germany’s political stage.
For Merz, much will depend on how the party leadership interprets the outcome—but the chancellor’s office itself is not at stake in Sunday’s vote.
This article was translated from the original Slovak version with the assistance of AI.
