Israel is preparing for parliamentary elections scheduled for October 27, 2026. This will be the first general poll since the October 7, 2023, attack by the Palestinian group Hamas, and the results could shape the political future of Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu. Central campaign issues include national security, responsibility for the failures that enabled the attack, the role of the military, and deep societal divisions within Israel.
Netanyahu is seeking to remain in power, but his government faces criticism for not yet establishing an independent state commission to thoroughly investigate the circumstances of the attack. The opposition is demanding political accountability and a change in the approach to security issues. The outcome of the election, however, will be influenced not only by public assessments of the October 7 events but also by the economy, mandatory military service, and complex negotiations over a potential coalition government.
Elections Will Determine Israel’s Future Course
Israeli voters will elect the 120-member Knesset. Forming a majority government requires the support of at least 61 lawmakers. Given the proportional electoral system and the fragmentation of political parties, the decisive factor may not simply be which party gets the most votes. Crucially, it will depend on whether political blocs can assemble a stable coalition.
Netanyahu leads the right-wing Likud party and relies on partners from religious and far-right factions. The opposition is split among several parties, including centrist, right-wing, and left-wing groups. Although many are united in their desire to replace Netanyahu, they differ on security policy, matters of religion, and cooperation with Arab parties.
The outcome may therefore lead to tough coalition negotiations. If neither bloc secures enough support, Israel could face yet another political stalemate.
October 7 Attack Remains the Central Campaign Issue
The October 2023 Hamas attack stands out as one of the most severe security failures in Israel’s history. Armed militants infiltrated Israeli territory from Gaza, killing civilians and security personnel and kidnapping hundreds. This provoked an extensive Israeli military operation in Gaza, sparkign a protracted conflict with dire humanitarian consequences.
Almost three years later, debate continues over who bears responsibility for Israeli security and intelligence forces’ inability to prevent the attack. Government critics insist the prime minister must bear political responsibility for the pre-attack security strategy and the state’s preparedness.
Netanyahu, on the other hand, points to the accountability of security and military officials. The dispute over who had warning information and how it was handled has become one of the most sensitive issues in the campaign.
Opposition Demands Independent Investigation
One of the main demands from opposition parties is the creation of an independent state commission with full authority to investigate. Its mission would be to scrutinize decisions made by political leaders, the military, and security services before the attack, as well as the state’s conduct during the crisis itself.
Former Chief of the General Staff Gadi Eizenkot, one of Netanyahu’s key political rivals, has pledged to support the formation of such a commission if he comes to power. The government camp favors a different investigation model, in which commission members would be appointed by politicians. Opposition leader Jair Lapid criticizes this approach, questioning its independence.
Prime Minister Netanyahu has partly placed blame on the security services, claiming they did not alert him in time on the day of the attack. The campaign is also raising questions about previous Israeli policies regarding Hamas and financial support the group received via Qatar, which was done with Israel’s approval.
The dispute is not solely about the past. The investigation’s findings could influence future security measures, the functioning of intelligence services, and public confidence in state institutions.
A Prolonged War Strains the Military
Beyond calls for an investigation, the country’s long-term security strategy is a major topic. Israel’s security doctrine has historically relied on strong intelligence, deterring adversaries, and striving for short military campaigns.
However, in the wake of the October 7, 2023 attack, Israel embarked on extended military operations on several fronts. The Israeli army has been active in Gaza, southern Lebanon, Syria, and has also been involved in conflicts with Iran and Yemen’s Houthis.
Such deployments raise concerns about the army’s long-term ability to maintain operations in multiple locations at once. Since 2023, tens of thousands of reservists have repeatedly been mobilized, imposing heavy personal and economic costs. Military officials have highlighted ongoing personnel shortages.
The war in Gaza also has profound humanitarian impacts and has triggered international criticism of Israel. The scale of destruction, civilian casualties, and allegations related to the conduct of military operations have become matters of international dispute.
Debate Over Mandatory Military Service Divides Society
The security challenges are also reflected in the fierce domestic debate on religion, identity, and compulsory military service. Exemptions granted to ultra-Orthodox Jews, many of whom study in religious schools and avoid regular conscription, remain especially sensitive.
With the army facing a shortage of soldiers, some in the public now call for a fairer distribution of obligations. Critics of the exemptions argue the burden should not rest disproportionately on particular segments of the population.
Ultra-Orthodox parties are significant partners in Netanyahu’s coalition and advocate maintaining the current conscription system. Opposition parties, by contrast, demand changes. Gadi Eizenkot, whose son died in the Gaza war, has criticized the government for, in his view, failing to ensure a more equitable distribution of military duties.
The controversy has broader societal ramifications, exposing fissures between secular and religious segments of Israeli society and raising questions about equality before the law, citizen obligations, and the influence of religious parties on state functioning.
Economy and High Living Costs Remain a Challenge
While security dominates the pre-election debate, issues like housing prices, household expenses, and defense spending also play a critical role. Prolonged military operations strain the state budget, business activity, and daily life for ordinary citizens.
Israel faces structural economic problems as well, from a lack of affordable housing to trade barriers and limited competition in certain sectors. For many voters, not only the approach to security threats but also prospects for improved living standards will be decisive.
Disputes over democratic institutions, the judiciary, and the relationship between religion and the state were dividing Israel even before the Hamas attack. The subsequent war has deepened many of these internal rifts.
Who Can Form the Next Government?
After the election, negotiations will begin over forming a new government. Netanyahu’s allies include right-wing and religious parties, each with their own demands related to security, military service, and religious policy.
The opposition consists of several parties, not all of which agree on the key issues. Collaboration with Arab parties remains politically controversial for parts of the opposition.
If a stable parliamentary majority cannot be built, Israel may face another period of political uncertainty. Therefore, the election result itself may not immediately resolve who will form the next government.
What the Election Could Mean for Israel
The October 27 parliamentary election will serve as an important test of public confidence in Netanyahu’s leadership after the Hamas attack and ensuing years of conflict. It will also show whether opposition parties can turn dissatisfaction with the government into enough parliamentary support.
Regardless of the result, the new government will face challenging tasks: strengthening security, addressing accountability for the October 7 events, resolving disputes over military service, and rebuilding trust between the state and segments of the population.
This vote isn’t just about who will be prime minister. It will determine how Israel approaches security, the military, and internal divisions that have only deepened since the Hamas attack.
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This article was translated from the original Slovak version with the assistance of AI.
