Russian President Vladimir Putin has declared that since the start of 2026, Russian forces have occupied approximately 6,500 square kilometers of Ukrainian territory and taken control of 310 settlements. However, data from the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) paints a very different picture. According to ISW, the net area gained by Russian forces from January to September is only about 144.51 square kilometers—that’s around 45 times less than the Kremlin’s claim.
Putin Cites Thousands of Square Kilometers Gained
Putin made his statements on October 16, 2026, during a visit to a Russian military command post. According to him, Russian troops have taken control of around 6,500 square kilometers and 310 settlements since the start of the year.
The Russian president also claimed that the army is making advances along the entire front line. Chief of General Staff Valery Gerasimov reportedly provided details on additional territorial gains since early September.
An independent assessment of the battlefield, however, yields very different numbers. ISW analysts note that statements from the Russian leadership significantly exaggerate the scope of advances they are able to verify.
ISW Reports Substantially Smaller Net Gains
Based on ISW data, the net territorial gain for Russia between January and September 2026 is only about 144.51 square kilometers. This is a sharp contrast to Putin’s claims.
When comparing these figures, it is important to distinguish between land temporarily taken in fighting and lasting changes in territorial control. The net result also takes into account areas later lost by either side.
This difference may help explain the discrepancy between numbers reported by Russia and those calculated by ISW. Furthermore, ISW notes that from early September to mid-October, there was actually a net loss of territory under Russian control.
Russian Forces Lost Territory in Some Months
The situation on the front line has not been consistent throughout the year. ISW data shows that in some months, Russian forces gained new ground, while in others, they lost territory.
In September 2026, according to the institute’s calculations, Russia lost around 80.81 square kilometers—meaning Ukrainian forces managed to recapture more land that month than Russian forces seized.
Such fluctuations highlight why gross territorial gains can be misleading when assessing the net outcome of military efforts. The situation also varies by region and changes over time.
Conflicting Reports Shape Perceptions of the War
ISW warns that Russian officials consistently present a much more optimistic picture of military successes than is supported by available evidence. According to ISW analysts, such statements can create the impression of much broader advances than can be confirmed by mapping the front line.
When evaluating such claims, it’s crucial to consider the time period covered, the methodology used, and whether the numbers refer to gross advances or net changes after accounting for losses.
The sheer area of captured land also does not reflect all military factors, such as the strategic importance of specific positions or losses suffered by both sides.
For more on the broader security context in Europe, read: NATO Changes Its Strategy and Strengthens Defense.
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This article was translated from the original Slovak version with the assistance of AI.
