US President Donald Trump could pose a major challenge for his Republican Party in the upcoming midterm elections in November. Joshua Ferrer, a political scientist at American University in Washington, warns that Trump’s low approval ratings and rising living costs are strengthening the Democrats’ position. According to his assessment, Democrats have a strong chance of winning a majority in the House of Representatives and could even compete for control of the Senate. The outcome will largely depend on whether Republicans can mobilize the voters who supported Trump in the presidential elections.
Congressional Elections to Test Trump’s Popularity
On November 3, 2026, Americans will decide on the new makeup of the House of Representatives and roughly a third of the Senate. These so-called midterms occur halfway through a president’s term and are often seen as a referendum on the sitting president’s performance.
Ferrer told the TASR news agency that this year is likely to be no different. Although Trump himself is not on the ballot, his policies and popularity could heavily influence Republican candidates’ results across the states.
According to Ferrer, Democrats are in a very strong position in the race for the House. The situation in the Senate, however, is more complicated, with outcomes hinging on several closely contested races.
If Republicans lose control of one or both chambers of Congress, the Trump administration could face even greater obstacles in advancing its legislation and budget priorities.
Discontent with the President at High Levels
One of the main problems facing Republicans is Trump’s low approval rating. According to polls cited by Aktuality.sk, only about 37 percent of Americans approve of his job performance, while 60 percent view him negatively.
These numbers could put Republican candidates at a disadvantage, especially in states where races are decided by a narrow margin. Some voters may choose to vote against ruling party candidates as a way to express discontent with the president.
Ferrer points out that Trump may be turning into a political burden for his own party. Although the GOP can still count on the support of the president’s loyal base, their success will also depend on undecided voters and those whose choices are primarily driven by economic issues.
High Prices Take Priority over Foreign Policy
Ferrer says the economic situation will be a decisive factor in the election. Americans are especially worried about high prices for fuel, essential goods, and interest rates.
Rising living costs could diminish support for the president, who campaigned on promises to improve economic conditions. If voters feel their finances are worsening, they may express their dissatisfaction at the ballot box in the congressional races.
According to Ferrer, foreign policy issues are likely to be less decisive for most voters than domestic economic concerns. Even issues like war with Iran, he notes, may not be as important to the electorate as day-to-day household expenses.
However, this does not mean international events cannot influence the outcome. If a conflict were to escalate significantly or cause further increases in energy prices, it could indirectly become a major part of the economic debate.
Democrats Make the Economy the Center of Their Campaign
While Republicans, according to Ferrer, try to shift attention to cultural and social issues, Democrats are focusing on economic problems and dissatisfaction with Trump’s leadership.
Republicans are talking about topics such as migration and issues related to transgender athletes, while Democrats highlight rising prices, living standards, and the impacts of the current administration’s decisions.
This approach may help Democrats attract independent voters and those not firmly committed to either party. Still, Trump’s unpopularity alone does not guarantee a Democratic victory. The party must also convince voters it has credible solutions to the country’s problems.
Senate Results Will Hinge on Tight Races
While Ferrer expects Democrats to enjoy a significant advantage in the House of Representatives, the Senate remains a toss-up.
Democrats need to win new seats while holding on to those they already control. Key battlegrounds, according to Ferrer, include Maine, Texas, Ohio, and Iowa, where even slight shifts in support could prove decisive.
Voter turnout will also be crucial. Republicans need to motivate those who supported Trump in the 2016 and 2024 presidential elections to show up, even though Trump’s name won’t be on the ballot.
If a portion of Trump’s supporters choose to stay home, Republican candidates could lose votes they might otherwise have secured.
What Would Losing Congress Mean for Trump?
If Democrats secure a majority in at least one chamber of Congress, they will have far greater influence over the legislative process and the ability to oversee the administration’s actions. Winning both chambers would make it even harder for Trump to push through his agenda.
The outcome would also affect the US political climate heading into the next presidential election. Republicans would have to assess whether voters rejected specific presidential actions, the administration’s economic record, or the party’s broader direction.
For now, however, these are predictions based on polling and expert assessments. The actual results will depend on turnout, individual campaign efforts, and events in the final days before voting.
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This article was translated from the original Slovak version with the assistance of AI.
