After more than two decades, another chapter in the US military presence in Iraq is coming to a close. The deadline for the withdrawal of the final remaining American troops from bases across the country expires on Wednesday. The move is the result of an agreement struck between Baghdad and Washington in 2024, under the administration of Joe Biden and now being implemented by the government of Donald Trump.
While Iran and its allies have welcomed the withdrawal, several Iraqi security officials warn of a potential power vacuum. Concerns are mounting that this could bolster pro-Iranian militias or allow Islamic State cells to exploit the shifting landscape.
Americans Depart Iraqi Bases After Years of Presence
The US military presence in Iraq has been marked by a dramatic history.
In 2003, the United States invaded Iraq, toppling Saddam Hussein’s regime. The invasion was followed by years of occupation, insurgency, and severe security challenges.
American forces conducted their first major withdrawal at the end of 2011.
However, just three years later, US troops returned in response to the rapid rise of Islamic State, which had seized vast territories across Iraq and Syria.
Now, another pivotal moment has arrived.
The Main Question: Who Fills the Gap?
The US withdrawal enjoys broad political support in Iraq, being closely associated with the restoration of full national sovereignty.
Yet not everyone believes the timing is safe.
Some Iraqi officials note that American intelligence, logistics and drone systems have played a key role in monitoring and containing Islamic State.
Although ISIS’s self-declared caliphate has been dismantled, security sources in Iraq say the group’s cells are still active.
The wider Middle East also remains highly unstable. Aktualizovane.sk previously reported that Iran had called on the Houthis to prepare for a potential blockade of the Red Sea amid rising tensions with the US.
Iran Welcomes the US Departure
Tehran regards the end of the US military presence as a positive development.
Iran has long wielded major political and security influence in Iraq and closely cooperates with several Shia groups.
It is precisely this reality that worries critics of the US withdrawal.
They argue that the US presence provided a counterweight to Iran’s growing influence. With its departure, the balance of power inside Iraq could shift significantly.
Tensions between Washington and Tehran have escalated sharply this year. As previously reported by Aktualizovane.sk, Iran admitted to damage to its energy infrastructure following US strikes.
Militias Not Yet Disarming
The original plan was to pair the US troop exit with the disarmament of non-state armed groups in Iraq.
That timeline, however, has shifted.
According to sources, the Iraqi government has extended the deadline for full disarmament and integration of these groups into state structures to June 30, 2027.
This means the US military is departing before the issue of armed militias is resolved.
This timing gap could prove to be one of the most sensitive issues as developments unfold.
Islamic State Remains a Threat
The question of Islamic State remains.
Though the group no longer controls territory as it once did, its sleeper cells have not disappeared.
Iraqi security sources cited in the initial report even warn of planned attacks through which ISIS may attempt to show it is still capable of striking.
The US withdrawal, therefore, is far more than the symbolic end of a historical era.
The true consequences of the decision will become clear in the coming months—depending on whether Baghdad can maintain control and stability without American military support.
Source: Pravda
This article was translated from the original Slovak version with the assistance of AI.
